A projection is a set of assumptions.

Separate the baseline from the opportunity

Start with what is already happening. Then identify the specific changes required to create additional demand, distribution or revenue. A larger addressable audience does not automatically become a larger customer base.

Make the drivers visible

A forecast is easier to assess when its drivers are explicit: reachable audience, participation, purchase frequency, average order value and operational capacity. These assumptions deserve as much attention as the final number.

Use the model to learn

Conservative, moderate and ambitious scenarios can help a team discuss uncertainty. As actual results arrive, update the drivers and the range. The value is in the decisions the model supports.